Podcast Episode23:27 • 2026-05-13

Market Corrections: 7 Strategies for Million-Dollar Portfolios

“What happens to a $3 million portfolio in a 20% market correction? Potentially $600,000 in losses.”

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About This Episode

What happens to a $3 million portfolio in a 20% market correction? Potentially $600,000 in losses.

When markets decline, the strategies that protect a $50,000 account simply don’t work for million-dollar portfolios. In this episode, we break down seven essential market correction strategies designed specifically for high-net-worth investors facing real stakes.

Learn how fee-based financial planning and fiduciary wealth management protect your assets during volatility, why traditional approaches fail when you have multiple seven figures at risk, and how tax-efficient strategies can save hundreds of thousands during downturns. We’ll explore the difference between reactive panic and proactive portfolio positioning, plus when to rebalance versus when to hold steady.

Whether you’re approaching retirement or managing generational wealth in Florida or beyond, these proven tactics help preserve and grow your legacy through market cycles. Ready to talk? Schedule a complimentary discovery call at TDWealth.net. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

đź“– Full show notes: https://tdwealth.net/market-corrections-7-strategies-for-million-dollar-portfolios/

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Episode Transcript

Auto-generated transcript. May contain minor errors.

You know, there's a, well, a fundamental law of physics that applies surprisingly well to your money. Oh, yeah. What's that? Climbing out of a hole is just a whole lot harder than falling into one.

I mean, gravity works with you on the way down, but it completely fights you every single step on the way back up. Yeah, that asymmetric math is pretty brutal, but, you know, it's exactly how market volatility operates in the real world. A 20% drop doesn't just require a 20% gain to fix. Right, because you have less capital to work with now.

Exactly. It actually requires a 25% gain just to get back to zero. You have to work so much harder just to tread water. It's terrifying when you actually look at the numbers, and that math is really the driving force behind our deep dives today.

It really is. We are looking at this fascinating playbook. It was created by Thomas Davies of Davies Wealth Management, which is a fee-based fiduciary advisor down in Stewart, Florida. Yeah, great source material for this.

Definitely. This portfolio was actually featured for the 1715 Treasure Coast Financial Wellness Platform, and the premise of it is just super blunt. Which is what you need sometimes. Right.

It basically says that when you are managing a portfolio over a million dollars, generic financial advice, you know, stuff like just stay the course, isn't just unhelpful. It can actually be legitimately dangerous. Oh, 100%. It completely ignores reality.

I mean, if you have a smaller account, yeah, simply ignoring the noise might be the best move. Sure. Just don't look at your 401k for a few months. Exactly.

But for high net worth investors, the stakes are just exponentially higher. You aren't just dealing with some singular, isolated stock portfolio. Right. There's so many moving parts.

Right. You're navigating this incredibly complex ecosystem. You've got income taxes, estate planning, Medicare premiums, and really intricate cash flow needs. So if the market drops and you just leave that entire ecosystem on autopilot- It's a massive missed opportunity.

You're leaving money on the table. So we want you, the listener, to imagine a totally different scenario today. Imagine the market drops like 15 or 20%. The news cycle is just screaming about a total crash.

As they always do. Right. Exactly. But instead of getting that familiar nod of panic in your stomach, you just simply open a prebuilt execution manual.

You aren't reacting to the chaos at all. You are actually capitalizing on it. Which requires a massive psychological shift. But before we can even get to the advanced offensive maneuvers like weaponizing the tax code, we have to build a really solid launch pad.

Because you can't climb out of the hole if the ground beneath you is crumbling. Exactly. And in investing, that crumbling ground is what we call sequence of returns risk. Oh, right.

That's the nightmare scenario, right? Where you retire, the market immediately tanks, and you are forced to sell off chunks of your portfolio at a massive discount just to pay for your groceries or your mortgage. Yeah, it's devastating. Because once those shares are sold, they are gone forever.

They never get to participate in the recovery. Right. So to neutralize that risk, the Davies Playbook relies on something called the bucket approach. It's basically a mechanical way of segmenting your money based entirely on when you actually need to spend it.

Okay. Break that down for me. How does it work? So a bucket one is pure, unadulterated liquidity.

Cash, money market funds, really short-term treasuries. You want zero to two years of your living expenses sitting right here. Just safe and accessible. Exactly.

So say your family spends $300,000 a year after taxes. You need $600,000 sitting completely liquid. Okay, wait. Here's where I kind of have to push back a little bit.

Keeping $600,000 in cash, especially when we know inflation is just constantly eroding purchasing power, that feels like a massive drag on the portfolio's growth. Oh, it is. Right. If you don't invest it and just trim your profits, it feels incredibly inefficient to just hoard cash like that.

I mean, from a purely mathematical spreadsheet-only perspective, you are totally right. It is a drag. But here's the thing. Investing isn't done on a spreadsheet.

It's done in the real world. Fair point. The purpose of bucket one is not yield. Its actual purpose is psychological armor.

If you look at the historical data from Fidelity, market drops of 10% or more happen every 12 to 24 months. Wow. That frequently. They are scheduled maintenance, not anomalies, and they typically recover in 6 to 12 months.

Only about 1 in 5 actually turns into a full-blown bear market. So by holding two years of cash, you are basically buying the ultimate luxury during a crash. You're buying time. Precisely.

You can leave bucket three, which is the bucket that holds all your growth assets, your equities, your real estate, you leave that entirely alone during that whole 12 to 18 month recovery window. You literally never have to lock in those temporary losses. Not a single one. The psychological dividend of knowing your lifestyle is completely firewalled from the market chaos.

That far outweighs missing a couple of percentage points on your cash. It literally prevents permanent wealth destruction. Okay. That makes a lot of sense.

So once that floor is secure and you know your bills are paid no matter what the market does, your mindset fundamentally changes. You stop playing defense. Exactly. You start looking for ways to reduce friction.

Which leads us to taxes. I really want to look at tax loss harvesting because honestly, I've always been a little skeptical of it. Really? Why is that?

Well, I know the mechanics, right? You sell a losing stock to offset a winning one. But does claiming a few thousand dollars in losses really move the needle for a multimillion dollar portfolio? Well, if you are using the mass market version of it, no.

I mean the average retail investor might harvest losses just to grab that standard $3,000 annual deduction against their ordinary income. Right. Which is nice, but not exactly life changing. Exactly.

It's a nice perk, but it's not game changing. High net worth tax loss harvesting operates on an entirely different scale. We are talking about offsetting massive, highly concentrated gains dollar for dollar. Okay.

Give me an example. How does this actually look in practice? So let's say you are a tech executive and you sold, I don't know, $500,000 of highly appreciated company stock earlier in the year. Okay.

You are tearing down a massive capital gains tax bill. Right. And then suddenly the broader market drops. If you can systematically harvest $500,000 of paper losses from other parts of your diversified portfolio.

Wait, I can just wipe out that tax liability on that company stock entirely? Entirely. A well executed campaign here doesn't just save you a few hundred bucks. It can generate $50,000 to $200,000 in real retained wealth.

That is staggering. But I mean the IRS isn't stupid. They have the wash sale rule. Yes, they do.

If you sell a security at a loss, you can't just buy the exact same thing back the next day. You have to wait 30 days or the IRS just disallows the loss. And here's the trap that catches even really sophisticated investors. The IRS tracks that wash sale rule across every single account tied to your social security number.

Right. Including my IRA. Including your IRAs. You cannot sell a tech index fund at a loss in your taxable brokerage account and then trigger a buy for that exact same fund in your Roth IRA the following week.

Because it's a wash. It's a wash. You have to use proxy assets. Meaning you buy something similar but not quote unquote substantially identical.

So you maintain your market exposure while you wait out those 30 days. But this raises a mechanical issue for me. Okay, what's that? If I am systematically combing through my portfolio and selling off all the losers to harvest these massive tax benefits, my portfolio is going to look completely mangled.

Right? Absolutely. Suddenly, I'm way overweight in whatever happened to survive the crash. That is exactly what happens.

A market drop doesn't just lose you money, it actively distorts your asset allocation. Right. If you build a 60-40 portfolio, a sharp drop in equities might leave you sitting at say 53% stocks and 47% bonds. And if you don't act, you are essentially passively timing the market.

You're reducing your equity exposure right at the exact moment when stock prices are on sale. Exactly. When expected future returns are actually at their highest. So you have to rebalance.

But you shouldn't just do it on a calendar schedule, right? Because volatility doesn't wait around for January 1st. Right. The playbook uses threshold triggers, not calendars.

If an asset class drifts by more than 5% from your target, you execute a rebalance right then. And you do it efficiently. You use the fresh cash generated from your dividends or any new contributions to buy those underweight assets. Does that actually make a meaningful difference though?

Huge difference. Vanguard actually has research showing this kind of systematic emotionless rebalancing captures an average of 0.35% to 0.50% in additional annual returns. Wow. And on a $5 million portfolio, that compounding half a percent is enormous over time.

It really adds up. Okay. So we've used the market drop to save on current taxes, but what about tomorrow? If we are really confident the market is going to recover, how do we protect that future growth from rising tax rates?

This brings us to Roth conversions, which honestly is essentially an arbitrage play on depressed valuations. Okay. Break that down. It is one of the most powerful levers you can pull.

Imagine your IRA was sitting at $3 million and it just dropped 20%. So now it's at 2.4 million. Okay. Painful, but I'm with you.

You can take those exact same shares, not the cash, but the depressed shares themselves and convert them to a tax-free Roth account. So I'm effectively paying taxes on a 20% discount. Exactly. It's like walking into a luxury store, seeing your absolute favorite item marked down by 20% and just buying it immediately.

Because you know for a fact that the standard retail price is legally mandated to skyrocket next year. That is the perfect analogy, especially given the looming 2026 deadline. Right. It's scheduled to sunset.

Exactly. The tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are scheduled to sunset after 2025. This means the top marginal federal tax rate is reverting back to 39.6%. So the window for converting assets at these historically low tax rates is basically slamming shut.

It really is. By moving those depressed shares into a Roth right now, all the subsequent recovery upside happens entirely tax-free. Hold on. Let me play devil's advocate here for a second.

The government isn't blind. If I convert hundreds of thousands of dollars from my IRA to a Roth, that gets added to my adjusted gross income for the year, doesn't it? It does. So I suddenly look significantly richer on paper.

Doesn't that trigger some sort of hidden trap? You've just identified the IRMAA landmine. IRMAA. What does that actually mean for me?

It stands for Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount. It is a surcharge added to your Medicare Part B and Part D premiums, and it's based entirely on your modified adjusted gross income. So if my income spikes because I did this really smart Roth conversion, Medicare punishes me. How strict is that?

Oh, incredibly strict. It operates on cliffs, not gradual slopes. Wait, cliffs? Yeah.

So for 2026, if you are single, the first IRMAA cliff hits at roughly $106,000. For joint filers, it's roughly $212,000. If your Roth conversion pushes your income even one single dollar over a tier. Just one dollar.

Just one dollar. You get hit with the full surcharge for that tier, and the mechanism is delayed. IRMAA has a two-year look back period. Oh, wow.

Meaning, a massive conversion I do today could trigger an extra $12,000 in Medicare surcharges two years down the road. Long after I've already spent the money to pay the initial tax bill. Exactly. This is exactly why mass market advice just falls apart at this level of wealth.

You cannot make a move in isolation. Right. You need a plan. You have to multi-year model the conversion.

You surgically convert just enough to fill up the favorable tax bracket, but you have to stop a millimeter short of triggering that IRMAA cliff. It's literally like navigating a minefield with a map. It is. Let's pivot to something even more complex.

We've been talking about diversified portfolios, your standard stocks and bonds. Right. But what if your wealth doesn't look like that? What if you are, say, an executive or an early tech employee, and millions of dollars of your net worth are tied up in a single, highly concentrated company stock that just took a massive hit?

That concentration risk is an existential threat to your wealth during a correction, and standard tools don't always work there. You need specialized mechanisms. Like what? Well, one really powerful option is an exchange fund.

How does that actually work mechanically? I've heard the term thrown around, but it always sounds kind of like a loophole. Well, it relies on partnership tax law. It allows an executive to take their highly appreciated, concentrated stock and essentially contribute it into a pooled partnership fund.

With other executives? Exactly. With other executives who hold totally different company stocks. So you aren't actually selling your shares.

You are swapping them for units of the partnership. Oh, I see. So, because there is no actual sale, there is no immediate capital gains tax triggered. Exactly.

So you walk away instantly diversified across this whole basket of different companies. That's incredibly clever. Right. But what if I'm like legally trapped?

What do you mean? What if I am an executive and I'm in a mandated blackout period, or I signed a lockup agreement and the market is completely crashing? I literally cannot transfer or sell my shares. Right.

That happens. In that case, you look at protective put options. You purchase derivative contracts that establish a hard price floor for your shares. So it's essentially buying an insurance policy on your specific stock.

That's exactly what it is. Even if the underlying company goes completely bankrupt and the stock goes to zero, the option contract guarantees you the right to sell at a predetermined exit price. Another tool the Davies Playbook mentions for concentrated wealth is the Charitable Remainder Trust, or CRT. And this is where the mechanics get really elegant.

I love CRTs. Yeah. If I understand this right, you transfer that highly concentrated stock directly into the trust, and the trust itself is a tax-exempt entity. Exactly.

Because the trust is tax-exempt, it can sell that concentrated stock to diversify the assets without paying any immediate capital gains tax. That is huge. It is. And then the trust pays you an income stream for the rest of your life, and whatever is left at the end goes to your chosen charity.

Plus, you get a partial income tax deduction in the very year you fund it. Which perfectly transitions into philanthropy in general. The Playbook points out something totally counterintuitive to me. What's that?

It says a market crash is actually an ideal time to increase your charitable giving. I mean, when the world is burning and your portfolio is down, giving money away goes against every single survival instinct you have. Behaviorally, yes, absolutely. But mechanically, no.

The tax code actively rewards giving during a downturn. How so? Well, if you have a high-income year, maybe you sold a business or had a big liquidity event, you can use a donor-advised fund, or DAF. Okay, I've heard of those.

You essentially bunch several years' worth of charitable contributions into the DAF all at once. You capture this massive tax deduction in the high-income year when you desperately need it. But I don't have to give it all to charity right away. Right.

The DAF holds the funds and grants them out to charities slowly over the next decade or however long you want. And what if I want to donate the depressed assets themselves? Normally, the advice is to donate highly appreciated stock to avoid capital gains. Right.

But during a correction, you completely invert that logic. You sell your depreciated stock yourself to harvest the tax loss, which we discussed earlier. Then, you take the cash proceeds from that sale and donate the cash to the charity. You get the tax loss to offset your gains, plus the charitable deduction for the cash gift.

You are basically stacking the benefits. That is so smart. For our listeners who are over 70 and a half years old, there is a mechanism called the Qualified Charitable Distribution, or QCD, right? Yes.

QCDs are fantastic. In 2026, you can transfer up to $108,000 directly from your IRA to a charity. The money completely bypasses your taxable income. Wait.

If we connect this back to our earlier conversation about landmines. Yep. You see the beauty of the system. Because the QCD money never hits your adjusted gross income, it doesn't count toward the IRMAA calculation at all.

Exactly. You cleanly bypass the Medicare surcharge while still fulfilling your philanthropic goals. It is literally financial chess. It really is.

Okay. So, we've optimized cash flow. We've slashed current taxes, protected future income from rising rates, and diversified concentrated wealth. We've covered a lot.

We really have. Now, we have to zoom out to the ultimate long-term horizon, passing this wealth to the next generation. The playbook calls a market correction a temporary sale on wealth transfer. And it is.

It is the absolute perfect time to execute estate planning. The IRS allows you to transfer assets at their current depressed valuations. So, you are effectively pulling the asset out of your taxable estate right at the bottom. Exactly.

So that the inevitable recovery happens on your children's balance sheet, entirely tax-free to you. And just like with the Roth conversions we talked about, the 2026 TCJA sunset is a ticking clock here too. Right. A federal state tax exemption is just historically massive.

In 2026, it's set at roughly $13.99 million per individual. Or nearly $28 million for a married couple. Exactly. But if the sunset happens as scheduled, that exemption could be slashed in half right down to around $7 million per individual.

So, the window to move extreme wealth tax-free is rapidly closing, which is exactly why gifting depressed shares is so incredibly powerful right now. Give me an example of how you do that. Take the annual exclusion gift. In 2026, you can gift $19,000 per recipient without cutting into your lifetime exemption at all.

Okay. So, instead of gifting cash, you gift shares of a stock that recently crashed and is temporarily worth $19,000 today. Oh, I see. When that stock inevitably bounces back to $25,000 or $30,000, all of that embedded future gain was transferred completely outside of your estate.

It's like moving your most valuable antique furniture to your kid's house right when the appraiser says the market for antiques is temporarily terrible. That's a great way to think about it. The IRS taxes the transfer at the yard sale price, but your kids get to keep the priceless heirloom when its value naturally rebounds. Exactly.

What about the more advanced mechanisms, though, like a GRAT? Oh, a Grantor Retained Annuity Trust, or GRAT. This is a phenomenal tool during a market dip. Here's how it basically works.

You fund the trust with depressed assets. The trust is then required to pay you back an annuity over a set number of years. Now, the IRS sets a specific hurdle rate, basically an interest rate they expect the trust to earn. Because you are funding it at the absolute bottom of a market correction, the assets are almost guaranteed to grow much faster than that relatively low IRS hurdle rate.

And what happens to the excess growth? It passes to your heirs completely free of gift tax. It's often called a zeroed out GRATE because the calculated value of the gift when you make it is technically zero. Wow.

Yeah. The annuity pays you back your original principal plus the hurdle rate, but the explosive wealth generated during the market recovery. That all goes to the next generation, untouched by the estate tax. You can achieve something similar with intrafamily loans, right?

You can, yeah. Lending money to an irrevocable trust for your kids at the applicable federal rate, which is usually incredibly low. Right. And the trust invests the money while the market is down.

If the market returns, say, 15% during the recovery and the loan rate was only 4%. That 11% spread is captured entirely by your kids. Exactly. And, you know, all of this really highlights why a comprehensive playbook is so necessary.

A Roth conversion impacts your Medicare premiums. Tax loss harvesting dictates your charitable giving mechanics. Your estate transfers pull from your liquidity buckets. Right.

So it's a highly interconnected machine. Which brings us back to the gravity of it all. You can have the most mathematically flawless, perfectly interconnected strategy in the world, but if the market drops and you let panic take the wheel, the entire machine just shatters. It completely falls apart.

There is this really sobering statistic in the guide from Morningstar. They track investor behavior and they found that the average investor actually underperforms their own investments by 1.0% to 1.7% every single year. Yeah, it's known as the behavioral gap. It is the quantifiable cost of human emotion.

You know, buying high when everyone is euphoric and selling low when the news is terrifying. And for a high net worth investor, the math is just unforgiving. Extremely. If you get spooked and liquidate $500,000 at the bottom of a correction and then you just sit safely in cash while the market stages a 30% recovery.

You haven't just missed out on potential gains. You have locked in a permanent irrevocable wealth destruction of $150,000. And that reality right there is the ultimate value proposition of a fiduciary. Davies Wealth Management emphasizes the fee-based fiduciary model for exactly this reason.

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